NASCAR at Phoenix odds, picks 2019: Model says Clint Bowyer surprises at TicketGuardian 500

The green flag drops for the 2019 TicketGuardian 500 at ISM Raceway in suburban Phoenix on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET. Following an electric start to the season at Daytona and two fast 1.5-mile tracks in Atlanta and Las Vegas, Phoenix is the Monster Energy NASCAR cup series’ first race in the tighter quarters of the one-mile loop at ISM Raceway. Kevin Harvick has won four of the last five March races in this track and is the 9-4 preferred to accumulate another win at the latest 2019 TicketGuardian 500 odds. Fellow veteran and Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin is becoming 16-1, while Kurt Busch is at 30-1 NASCAR at Phoenix odds after a solid start to his period that has him eighth in the NASCAR standings. Before you make your own 2019 TicketGuardian 500 picks, make sure you check at the NASCAR at Phoenix projected leaderboard from the SportsLine Projection Model.

Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 occasions, taking factors such as track history and current results into consideration.

It made some huge calls in NASCAR last year, including properly casting wins for Kyle Busch in Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. in Sonoma. And it’s off to a powerful start in NASCAR this season, calling Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin that a top-four competition and nailing eight of the top 10 drivers in last week’s Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its own projected top . Is way up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Events in places like ISM Raceway are in his bloodstream. His model has now simulated Sunday’s 2019 NASCAR in Phoenix race 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For the 2019 TicketGuardian 500, we could tell you the model is high on Clint Bowyer, making a strong run in the checkered flag despite going off as a long shot at 25-1 NASCAR odds. He’s a goal for anybody looking for a payday.

Bowyer struck a five-season drought without a win last year and proceeded to grab a pair of victories at Martinsville and Michigan on the way to some 12th-place end in the NASCAR Playoffs. This season, he has added a top-five finish at Atlanta and has shown remarkable speed occasionally. Bowyer has seven career top-10s in Phoenix and won a truck series race at this track in 2010.

Bowyer, who drives for Stewart-Haas Racing, was also second in among this year’s Daytona Duels and closed out last year’s NASCAR schedule using an eight-place ending at Homestead. He will also come armed into the 2019 TicketGuardian 500 using a similar car set up to teammates Harvick and Aric Almirola.

One of those shocking 2019 NASCAR at Phoenix chooses from the model: Kevin Harvick, a nine-time winner at ISM Raceway and the very best Vegas favourite, makes a solid run but falls short of winning it all.

Harvick has made a career out of getting to the front of the pack consistently at this track. In fact, he has finished in the top 10 in 11 consecutive starts at ISM Raceway

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